What must NORVIA win?
set by the owner, 22 Aug 2026 · click a goal to see which projects help win itA project must help win at least 3 of these 4 goals: the first of the rule’s three checks.
How much money is there, and where does it go?
no project over 40% of the budget€90k of the €300k budget funds new projects: €40k to Partnerships, €35k to New revenue, and €15k waits for a project that passes.
Where does each project stand?
New revenue and Partnerships pass the rule. Go-to-market fits the goals, but its evidence is still thin.
Gates Go-to-market
Click a gate to see it on The plan.
How do the projects compare?
click a row or an outlinePartnerships leads: it helps win all 4 goals and could earn the most a year.
| Project | Next gate | Earns a year | Goals | Evidence | Risk | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New revenueCharge by results, not licence | €20–35k | €300–800k | 3 of 4 | 94% | Price may slow sales | |
| PartnershipsSecurity partner via EU makers | €15–40k | €400–1,000k | 4 of 4 | 94% | May not stand out | |
| Go-to-marketSell the software on its own | €30–80k | €200–500k | 3 of 4 | 17% | May not sell unbundled | fails the rule |
Back: 3+ goals, 75%+ evidence, money for the next gate
Why is this project backed? Not this year
Challenge this verdict Full read on Projects ›What the analysis found
3 projects · 5 areas| Customers | Market | Product | Brand | Experience | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analysed in July | |||||
| analysed in August | |||||
| analysed in May |
Scores 0–100 · go 70+ · middle 50–69 · weak below 50 · to prove: each project’s lowest · dashed: data still missing
Risks
money the backed projects put at stake€270k across the two backed projects’ gates, €25k of it already released, all of it on the regulatory clock.
Beyond the plan
the closer to the core, the more provenThree of eight directions are in the plan. Two more came out of an analysis, and three are ideas nobody has examined yet.
Three of the eight are ideas nobody has examined; the seven forces place them, but nothing has tested the idea itself. Whether two of the eight are the same bet in different words has not been checked. What NORVIA can do in-house is assumed until Your projects is filled. Values marked “if it holds” are the demo’s own sample bands.
What’s moving this market
seven forces · three betsThe market favours The certified niche: two forces push it and none holds it back. Software on its own is held back three to one.
What moves, and when
2021 to 2030Scenarios
three possible futures, ranked as the portfolio backs themScenario 1 of 3 · Partnerships · ranked first, backed this year
The certified niche
If buyers pay for certified security, NORVIA owns the EU niche
Rests on EU policy cutting high-risk suppliers by 25%, and on demand for secure, reliable software holding.
Buyers choose a security partner over features or price.
→ Asset owners who fear cyber risk start shortlisting NORVIA.
Two EU or Western manufacturers build NORVIA into their systems.
→ One Chinese channel is no longer the whole route to market.
EU deadline: the EU’s software-security law takes effect
Utilities buy only from suppliers who can prove their software is secure.
A top-grade EU security certificate earns a higher price.
→ The certificate lands, and NORVIA charges more for it.
The catch In this order the certificate lands after the deadline. Started alongside the partner pathways, it can land before it.
Watch firstDo utility tenders start asking for an EU security certificate by mid-2027? If they do not, this future is fading.
If it goes the other wayThe EU simplifies its rules, rivals earn the same certificate, and it stops earning a higher price.
The gates and their money select a stop on the road to light its gates and walk its steps
Passes when the repositioning shows up as measurably better lead quality and win rates in the target niche.
This project stops if no certification path confirmed within 6 months of repositioning → the Partnerships road pauses at the repositioning
Passes when at least two EU or Western manufacturers are integrated as working pathways.
Passes when a ‘High’ assurance EU cybersecurity certificate lands, alongside a flagship utility pilot.
all three gates ≈ 18–33 months if run in strict order
Scenario 2 of 3 · New revenue · ranked second, backed this year
Paid to trade
If NORVIA’s AI can trade, the wholesale market pays for it
Rests on one figure NORVIA supplied and nobody has checked: 95% of German battery revenue from trading power on the wholesale market by 2030.
NORVIA IQ trades in the top quarter against the market leaders.
→ NORVIA can charge for performance.
Customers pay a base fee plus a fee on the energy traded.
→ Ten customers on the new price buy faster than on a flat fee.
Buyers take a core product first and add the AI later.
→ A core product ships, with the AI as a paid add-on.
EU deadline: the EU’s software-security law takes effect
All three tests have passed ten weeks earlier.
The catch The whole case rests on one number nobody has checked: that trading on the wholesale market becomes 95% of German battery revenue by 2030.
Watch firstThe trading test reports on 22 November. If NORVIA IQ is not in the top quarter, this future stops there.
If it goes the other wayThe test reports average performance. Performance pricing stops, €35k is freed, and the wholesale claim no longer carries €120k.
The gates and their money select a stop on the road to light its gates and walk its steps
Passes when it reaches the top quarter against key competitors in simulated wholesale markets.
This project stops if trading test below the top half on two consecutive runs → the premium-pricing path stops; the cost-leadership fallback stands
Passes when at least 10 customers on outcome-based pricing show better conversion or satisfaction.
Passes when a core EMS product ships as the entry point, with the AI as a paid add-on.
Scenario 3 of 3 · Go-to-market · ranked third, not this year
Software on its own
If operators buy the software on its own, NORVIA scales without its hardware
Rests on operators wanting software that works with any maker’s hardware more than they fear switching, which no area of the analysis yet shows.
Three to five operators buy the software without NORVIA’s hardware.
→ They pay for the software alone.
EU deadline: the EU’s software-security law takes effect
Two tests still to run.
They run it without deep support and can count a return.
→ They can show what it returns.
Two of them go public as references.
→ NORVIA has a repeatable sale.
The catch Not backed this year. The earliest start follows the revisit on 22 November, and the three tests take 27 months, well past the EU deadline.
Watch firstWill three operators sign a paid pilot without NORVIA’s hardware? A survey finds 55% of storage professionals unhappy with what they run today. If none signs, that unhappiness does not buy software.
If it goes the other wayOperators stay with the software their manufacturer bundles, and the pilots find no buyer. The plan stops after six months and €80k.
The gates and their money select a stop on the road to light its gates and walk its steps
Passes when three to five pilots run on standalone pricing and hit their success measures.
Passes when pilots hit a usability target and show a return that can be counted.
Passes when at least two pilots become public references with hard return figures.
This project stops if the 22 Nov revisit reads hold again → standalone parks for 12 months
Ranked as the Overview backs them: the projects that pass the rule, by what each earns per euro of its next gate, then the rest. Only 22 Nov and December 2027 are fixed; the other dates follow from how long each gate takes. Each pattern is one of 200+ in the Validatus pattern library, shown by what it measured in other industries. Which areas asked for a gate is the advisor’s reading; the record links no evidence to its gates.
What the page decides with
4 NORVIA’s · 4 assumed · 1 blank · 3 projects analysed, May to August 2026A manufacturer and integrator. NORVIA OS runs the sites; NORVIA IQ optimises them.
The page decides with NORVIA’s goals, budget and people; the 30% share, the 40% cap and the stop rules are assumed until NORVIA confirms them.
Change the budget or the share here and the Overview’s money card and the gates follow.
The projects
4 this year · 0 archivedArchived · 0
Archived projects keep every row, so next year reads what each promised against what it delivered. It cannot see what nobody has written down. On this demo the add flow is a walkthrough: no result is invented.